Fundamentals Of Agriculture
The traditional income capitalization model provides a straightforward approach with which to view the economic fundamentals of farmland values. This model simplifies the farmland valuation problem and expresses current farmland values as a function of current income produced by farmland, the opportunity cost of capital or discount rate, and the constant rate at which income is expected to grow in the future, as shown below:
Agri-Business is Business. It is the means of providing capital for agricultural products, and the derivatives trading in agricultural products is part and parcel of Wall Street. This is not a new phenomenon. Cotton traded on Wall Street long before it was important to a large swab or a man’s suit.
Yield growth is a crucial determinant of net farm income, which is governed significantly by the extent to which farming production is sustained by weather conditions that favor greater yields. The rainfed cropping area of the United States has increased from 46 percent of the total cropland area in 1900 to 83 percent in 1990, as outlined in Figure 1. This growth has been driven by developed, developing, and developing to developed cropland transitions. This trend has resulted in increased production in the rainfed cropping area as well as in the irrigated cropland areas, accommodating a broad array of climatic conditions, soil types, and crop species. As documented in Figure 1, the estimated uncertainty in the future production of major agricultural commodities for agronomic, climatic, and economic factors is quite large.Figure 2 depicts the range of crop production estimates for several major crops as a function of the cost of production. The traditional or historic trend of yield growth among most crops has been below the cost of production, which commonly matches returnable costs of production and profitable returns. However, the relationship will vary with the stage of development of production of the agricultural commodity in most export markets.
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